In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, ETFs, and stocks that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower.
Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.
After making a new high Wednesday, the market stumbles.
How bad was Friday's drubbing? In the context of historical daily returns it wasn't that bad. But it certainly gets your attention.
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A look at monthly returns.
This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. Friday's decline knocked us into the red for February. Since Trump was elected, the market is up by 1.4%.
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A look at drawdowns this year.
Here is a closer look at the pullbacks we've had over the last 12 months, using a drawdown chart. The current drawdown is 2.1% after making a new high on Wednesday.
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A look at the bull run since it began last October.
This chart highlights the 68.1% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We came to rest below the trendline and it looks like we may have further to go before this pullback is over.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.
The best performer last week was Asia, led by China. The worst performer was Blockchain, as Bitcoin ended the week at $95,600. That's down from the recent high water mark of $108,100.
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Equity sector performance
For this report I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.
Investors were buying defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples while selling Retail and Transportation stocks.
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Equity group performance
For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.
The best performing groups last week were Emerging Market stocks and US Defensive stocks. Investors raised cash by selling Small and Midcap Growth and the Mag 7.
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The S&P Mag 7
Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market over the past two years. These seven stocks are off to a weak start YTD. Faith in the AI trade is being tested. Participation in the bull market has broadened on a year to date basis. META was hardest hit, while AAPL managed to eke out a small gain for the week.
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The S&P Top 7 dominance is reasserting itself.
After leading the market higher for the last two years, the Mag 7 are now a drag on the S&P 500 index on a year-to-date basis. 66% of all stocks in the S&P 1500 were down last week, while 30% were up and 4% were unchanged.
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The 10 best performing ETFs from last week
The two biggest winners this week - Emerging Market internet stocks and Gold - demonstrate how market leadership is changing in 2025.
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The 10 worst performing ETFs from last week
It's no surprise to see the ARK ETFs taking the #1 and #2 slots on the worst performing ETF list, as these funds tend to bounce from big losses one week to big gains the next. Investing in ARK funds is not for the faint of heart.
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Best Performing Stocks
Celsius (CELH) spiked on better than expected earnings, and a $1.8 Billion acquisition.
Worst Performing Stocks
Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) lost 1/3 of its value after an earnings miss.
Final thoughts
To recap, in the week just past, investors were:
- Selling small cap growth and buying large cap value
- Selling Blockchain and buying China stocks
- Selling Fintech and buying Gold
- Selling Retail and buying Utilities
- Selling US stocks and buying Foreign stocks
My view is that long term momentum is still healthy but there will be pullbacks like this along the way - maybe even a 10% correction - until we get more clarity about tariffs and inflation. Therefore I'm advising clients to wait for deeper pullbacks to put fresh cash to work.