In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, ETFs, and stocks that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower.
Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.
After making a new high on February 19, the market stumbles.
As tariff threats - real or threatened - ratchet up, and weakness in Consumer Spending hits the tape, investors pulled back from equities and sought safety in Treasury bonds. The market was down 1% for the week and up 1.2% YTD.
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A look at monthly returns.
This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. A look at the last 4 months on this chart reveals the volatility in the equity market.
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A look at drawdowns this year.
Here is a closer look at the pullbacks we've had over the last 12 months, using a drawdown chart. The current drawdown is 3.1% after making a new high on February 19. We haven't had a 10% correction since October 2021. I think we're due for one this year.
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A look at the bull run since it began last October.
This chart highlights the 66.5% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We came to rest below the trendline and it looks like we may have further to go on the downside before this pullback is over.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.
The best performer last week was Bonds, especially the 10 yr Treasury. The worst performer was Blockchain, as Bitcoin ended the week at $84,373. That's down from the recent high water mark of $108,100. This 22% decline puts Bitcoin in a bear market.
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Equity sector performance
For this report I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.
Investors were buying defensive sectors like Defense Contractors and Consumer Staples while selling Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
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Equity group performance
For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.
The best performing groups last week were Large Cap Value stocks and US Defensive stocks. Investors raised cash by selling the Mag 7 and Emerging Market stocks.
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The S&P Mag 7
Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market over the past two years. These seven stocks are off to a weak start YTD. Faith in the AI trade is being tested. Participation in the bull market has broadened on a year to date basis. TSLA was hardest hit, while AAPL was the best house in a crummy neighborhood.
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The Mag 7 dominance is now a drag on performance.
After leading the market higher for the last two years, the Mag 7 are now a drag on the S&P 500 index on a year-to-date basis. You can't see it on the chart but the Mag 7 have contributed -0.9% to the 1.2% gain in the S&P 500 YTD.
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The 10 best performing ETFs from last week
The two biggest winners this week - Insurance Companies and Europe Financials - demonstrate how market leadership is changing in 2025.
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The 10 worst performing ETFs from last week
With Bitcoin now in a bear market, the ETFs that track it are getting hit hard. Blockchain companies are also getting hit. And Cannabis just can't seem to catch a bid.
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Best Performing Stocks
B. Riley Financial (RILY) spiked higher after securing $180M in financing from Oaktree. Proceeds were used to retire debt owed to Nomura.
Worst Performing Stocks
DoubleVerify's (DV) growth rate slowed in 2024 more than expected, and management believes it will slow again in the coming year. Some large customers are cutting back on their spending on the platform, which worries investors.
Final thoughts
To recap, in the week just past, investors were:
- Selling stocks and buying bonds
- Selling Bitcoin and raising cash
- Selling Semiconductors and buying Insurance companies
- Selling Tech and buying Defense Contractors
- Selling US stocks and buying Foreign stocks
- Selling the Mag 7 and buying other Large Caps