In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, ETFs, and stocks that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower.
Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.
The market is having a tariff tantrum.
As tariff threats - real or threatened - ratchet up, and weakness in Consumer Spending, Employment, and earnings estimates take hold, investors pulled back from equities and sought safety in Cash, Gold and Treasury bonds. The market was down 3.1% for the week and down 2.9% YTD. We are now back to where we started on election day in November 2024.
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A look at monthly returns.
This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. After weak showing in February, March is off to an even weaker start.
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A look at drawdowns this year.
Here is a closer look at the pullbacks we've had over the last 12 months, using a drawdown chart. The current drawdown is -6.1% after making a new high on February 19. I think we're due for a 10% correction sometime this year.
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A look at the bull run since it began last October.
This chart highlights the 61.3% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We are well below the trendline and it looks like we may have further to go on the downside before this pullback is over.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.
The best performer last week was Volatility, which should surprise no one. The worst performer was the small cap Russell 2000 index. China and Europe are still doing well.
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Equity sector performance
For this report I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.
Investors were buying defensive sectors like Healthcare and Consumer Staples while selling Financials and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
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Equity group performance
For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.
The best performing groups last week were non-US stocks, both Developed and Emerging. Investors raised cash by selling the Mag 7 and other Growth stocks..
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The S&P Mag 7
Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that had been leading the market over the past two years. These seven stocks are off to a weak start YTD. Faith in the AI trade is being tested. Participation in the bull market has broadened on a year to date basis. TSLA was hardest hit, with NVDA not far behind.
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The Mag 7 dominance is a drag on performance.
After leading the market higher for the last two years, the Mag 7 are now a drag on the S&P 500 index on a year-to-date basis. The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average of 4.0% YTD.
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The 10 best performing ETFs from last week
The two biggest winners this week - Eurozone Equity and Europe Financials - demonstrate how market leadership is changing in 2025.
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The 10 worst performing ETFs from last week
Leisure & Entertainment was one of the best market segments last year, and now it has become a source of funds. Regional Banks sold off hard, as did Brokers-Exchanges.
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Best Performing Stocks
Middlesex Water, a regulated utility, got a boost from an increase in rates it charges to residential and industrial customers in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware.
Worst Performing Stocks
Sleep Number (SNBR) beat their earnings number but fell short on revenue. Analysts are trimming forecasts as a result.
Final thoughts
To recap, in the week just past, investors were:
- Selling stocks and buying bonds and gold
- Selling Small Caps and raising cash
- Selling Leisure & Entertainment and buying Consumer Staples
- Selling Growth and buying Value
- Selling US stocks and buying Foreign stocks
- Selling the Mag 7 and buying other Large Caps