Here at ZenInvestor we manage 5 model portfolios for clients and subscribers. Each portfolio has its own tilt, based on screening algorithms that look for certain characteristics that are shared by companies that meet our minimum standards.
In addition to the model portfolios, we also manage 4 defensive overlays that can be used with any equity strategy. These overlays are designed to operate quietly in the background until the market, or the economy, sends a signal that it's time to play defense.
The overlay models continuously monitor the market and the economy, and calculate the probabilities of bear markets and recessions. How each investor uses this information is a matter of personal choice, but we do encourage our clients and subscribers to set up a specific plan that lays out the steps they will take, based on the level of risk that exists in the current environment.
Below is a table that shows the periodic returns of the market, the 5 Factor-Based trading strategies we manage, and the 4 defensive overlays. You will note that many of the returns are identical for the 1, 3, and 5 year periods. This is because we have been enjoying a bull market since March 2009.
The returns for the overlays begin to diverge at the 10 year mark. This is because 10 years ago we were still in the throes of a severe bear market. The overlays gave warnings at various times, and with varying degrees of urgency. Our clients and subscribers were able to avoid a significant portion of the damage caused by the 2008 financial crisis and bear market.
At the 20 year mark you will see further divergence in the returns of the overlays. This time frame includes two major bear markets - 2008 and 2000.
It's my hope that readers will understand the nature of our defensive overlays. They are not calibrated to anticipate every zig and zag of the stock market. They give signals infrequently, but when they do, they pay off handsomely. At the 10 year mark, they boosted equity returns by a wide margin. At the 20 year mark, they added even more value.
At shorter time frames, the overlays will seem to be dormant, but they're not. They are continuously monitoring the health and direction of the market and the economy. They are there to provide warnings when warnings are called for, and the rest of the time they remain in the background.
If you would like to learn more about the Factor-Based models, go to the main menu and select "Services" and then "Factor Based Trading Strategies."
I'm working on a page that describes in detail, how the overlays work and how much they cost. I hope to have that up shortly.