What happened last week.
What we're watching for next week.
The Stock Market
This market has gone nowhere for the past 52 days. Yes, we're within a pitching wedge of the old high, but there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm in the market lately.
A look under the surface of the market reveals a very different story. Take gold, for instance. It's up by 30% this year, and 38% over the last 12 months. That's big. Gold means many things to many people, but one thing it's good at is sussing out geopolitical risks.
With the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the Middle East looks like a powder keg. The price of oil is spiking, and the big money is seeking refuge in safe assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
Boris Johnson's Brexit gambit is a hot mess that could send Europe into a serious recession. Is Boris trying to out-trump Trump? If he is, it's working.
Back in the U.S. there are some major shifts going on in the capital markets. For instance, Value stocks are outperforming Growth and Momentum stocks for the first time since 2006. What does that tell you? It tells me that investors are shifting from risk-on to risk-off.
Meanwhile, back at the Factor Zoo, there are shifts going on. Small caps are moving higher after under performing for the past year or so. Low Volatility stocks have been strong for the past year, too. It all adds up to one key theme: risk off.
Final Thoughts
The bears are circling. For next week I'm watching gold, interest rates, developments in the Middle East,
If you want more info about how to set up a solid Plan B, see my articles on the subject here and here and here.
For a full analysis of the probability of a bear market or a new recession, check out my Monthly Intelligence Report.
As always, if you like what you see, or have suggestions for improving this recap, leave a comment below, or email me at info@zeninvestor.org