December 2, 2019

Thanksgiving leftovers have been eaten. Black Friday shopping is done. With time on our hands, why not reflect on past winners and losers in The Investment Game?


Today I present 4 lists of winning and losing stocks. 

  1. Mega-winners  that have at least doubled in price since the start of 2019
  2. "Ten-Baggers" that have gained at least 6,000% since the market bottom in 2009
  3.  "Widow-Makers" that have lost at least 80% of their value since the market bottom in 2009
  4. And just for fun, the 10 stocks that have gained the most since Trump became President.

Table 1. Stocks that have been on fire in 2019, at least doubling in price.

top 21 stocks 2019

If you were lucky enough, or smart enough, to own even one of these high-octane names this year, you probably did well overall. Let's break down this list.

Of the 21 names, 9 are tech stocks, by far the largest representation. 

3 are retailers, which supports the "healthy consumer" narrative.

The rest are single representatives from these industries:

BASIC MATERIALS
BUSINESS SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
CONSUMER STAPLES
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
MEDICAL
OILS-ENERGY

Wait a second. How did an energy company make the list? You'll have to do some research into World Fuel Services [INT] to find the answer.

Table 2. Ten-Baggers since the 2009 bottom..

top stocks since 2009 market bottom

This list is stacked with companies in Finance. 4 of the 10, in fact. The rest are single representatives of their industries.

BUSINESS SERVICES
COMPUTER AND TECHNOLOGY
CONSTRUCTION
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
OILS-ENERGY
RETAIL-WHOLESALE

In case you're wondering how a company like Patrick Industries or Fidelity Southern can possibly gain 25,000% over 10 years, the answer is earnings growth, great management, and smart deployment of capital.

Table 3. Stocks that have benefited the most during the Trump administration.

top stocks since Trump election

These 10 stocks have thrived since the election. And it's a more balanced list than the others. 3 Tech stocks, 2 Finance, 2 medical, 2 energy, and 1 Utility. How did Ensco PLC [ESV] manage to gain 3,111%? Do some research and find out.

Table 4. Stocks that have been hammered mercilessly and may not survive.

worst performing stocks since 2009 market bottom

Finally we turn to the sad-sacks in the market. These unfortunate companies had already taken a beating during the 2008 market meltdown, and they have not yet found a way back to health. 

The list is lopsided, having 6 of the 10 stocks in the energy industry. The other 4 are single representatives of these industries:

COMPUTER AND TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER STAPLES
MEDICAL
UTILITIES

Final thoughts

This article is a cautionary tale for stock pickers. You can make a killing, as the tables show, but you had better have an edge over the competition (professional investors) if you want to go that route. 

I advise clients to diversify, but not to over-diversify. You can tilt your portfolio in many different ways, but you can't eliminate market risk. Stock pickers (like me) might consider a portfolio that has 60% in diversified vehicles like index ETFs and 40% in individual stocks. The goal is to not blow yourself up while looking for the next Ten-Bagger.

About the author 

Erik Conley

Former head of equity trading, Northern Trust Bank, Chicago. Teacher, trainer, mentor, market historian, and perpetual student of all things related to the stock market and excellence in investing.

  1. Not sure where you’re getting your data or whether you double-checked any of this, but Ensco (now Valaris) is absolutely not up 3000% and in fact has lost 90%+ of its value since Trump took office.

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