The 1-Minute Market Report October 6, 2024

In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, ETFs, and stocks that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower.

Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.

Another week, another record high.

The S&P 500 notched its 43rd record high on Monday, reaching 5762. In a typical year, the market makes 14 new highs over the full year. Here's a look at the last 4 weeks.

A look at monthly returns.

This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. September got off to a shaky start but it finished solidly in the green. 

A look at drawdowns this year.

Here is a closer look at the pullbacks we've had in 2024, using a drawdown chart. The current drawdown is 0.2% from the peak on Monday.

A look at the bull run since it began last October.

This chart highlights the 60.8% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We have moved above the trendline and it looks like we may have further to run before this rally is over. 

Major asset class performance.

Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.

The best performer last week was Commodities, led by rising energy prices. The worst performer was Europe. Blockchain companies sold off as Bitcoin and other cryptos gave back some of their recent gains.

Equity sector performance

For this report I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.

Investors were selling Construction and Materials, and buying Energy and Defense.

Equity group performance

For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.

The best performing group last week was Emerging Markets, led by China's strong rally. Investors sold Defensive stocks and bought Cyclicals. They also rotated out of Small Caps and into Large Caps.

The S&P Top 7

Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market over the past year. These seven stocks account for 53% of the total YTD gain in the S&P 500. That's down from 87% at the start of the year, providing evidence that participation in the bull market is broadening. NVDA was the big winner, while MSFT took a hit.

The S&P Top 7 dominance is fading

The 10 best performing ETFs from last week

China stocks are surging higher on government promises for massive stimulus measures, but some prominent investment managers are skeptical. Here's what Bloomberg had to say: 

"Invesco Ltd., JPMorgan Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those viewing the recent rebound with skepticism and waiting for Beijing to back up its stimulus pledges with real money. Some are also concerned many stocks are already reaching overvalued levels."

The 10 worst performing ETFs from last week

The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was the worst performer last week. According to Morningstar, "The investment seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of bitcoin. The fund adviser seeks to achieve its investment objective primarily through managed exposure to bitcoin futures contracts. The fund does not invest directly in bitcoin."

The 10 best performing stocks from last week

Here are the 10 best performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week.

Shares of Trinseo (TSE) have surged since it announced significant restructuring initiatives that will position the company for long-term growth. The company is consolidating its Engineered Materials, Plastics Solutions and Polystyrene businesses beginning Oct. 1, 2024. This move will minimize the workforce by consolidating management positions and support roles.

The 10 worst performing stocks from last week

Here are the 10 worst performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week. 

SITE Centers Corp. (SITC) announced that it has completed the previously announced spin-off of Curbline Properties Corp. (CURB). SITC shareholders received 2 shares of CURB for every share of SITC they own.

Final thoughts

To recap, in the week just past, investors were:

• Selling small caps and buying large caps
• Selling foreign developed stocks and buying emerging market stocks
• Selling bitcoin and buying commodities
• Selling construction and materials and buying energy and defense
• Selling clean energy and buying oil

Despite an unexpectedly strong jobs report and a government funding deal, the stock market only managed to gain 0.3% last week. In addition, I found it interesting that volatility ticked higher, even though the week was relatively calm. This tells me that investors are still concerned about the Ukraine and Middle East situations, inflated market valuations, and the possibility of a recession in the near future. 

My view is that long term momentum is still healthy but there will be pullbacks along the way - maybe even a 10% correction - until the presidential election is over and settled. Therefore I'm advising clients not to chase stocks, but to wait for pullbacks to put excess cash to work.