In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, ETFs, and stocks that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower.
Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.
After making 47 new highs, the market takes a breather.
The S&P 500 notched its 47th record high on October 18th, reaching 5862. That put 2024 on the Top 10 list of years with the most new high days. Here's a look at the last 4 weeks. A pause in the runup is normal and should be expected.
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A look at monthly returns.
This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. October ended in the red, thanks to the Halloween selloff.
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A look at drawdowns this year.
Here is a closer look at the pullbacks we've had in 2024, using a drawdown chart. The current drawdown is 2.3% after making a new high ten days ago.
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A look at the bull run since it began last October.
This chart highlights the 60.2% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We came to rest at the trendline and it looks like we may dip below it next week. The weaker than expected employment report on Friday doesn't help the bullish case for stocks.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.
The best performer last week was Volatility, as Thursday's selloff sent the VIX index higher. The worst performer was Commodities, as gold and oil sold off.
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Equity sector performance
For this report I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.
Investors were buying Communication Services and Transportation, while selling Autos.
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Equity group performance
For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.
The best performing groups last week were Small Caps and Mid Caps. Investors raised cash by selling Large Caps, including some of the Mag 7 names.
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The S&P Top 7
Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market over the past year. These seven stocks account for 68% of the total YTD gain in the S&P 500. That's up from 53% just four weeks ago, reflecting the rekindled faith in the AI trade. Participation in the bull market has broadened on a year to date basis but is beginning to narrow again. TSLA was hardest hit, while AMZN led the group.
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The S&P Top 7 dominance is reasserting itself.
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The 10 best performing ETFs from last week
The two biggest winners this week - Genomics and Carbon Credits - were probably just benefitting from an oversold bounce. The gain in Global Jets looks more sustainable.
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The 10 worst performing ETFs from last week
Cannabis continues to lose ground as tight regulation and heavy taxes weigh on profitability and growth.
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Final thoughts
To recap, in the week just past, investors were:
- Selling large caps and buying small caps
- Selling commodities and buying volatility
- Selling autos and buying communication services
- Selling growth and buying value
My view is that long term momentum is still healthy but there will be pullbacks along the way - maybe even a 10% correction - until the presidential election is over and settled. Therefore I'm advising clients not to chase stocks, but to wait for pullbacks to put fresh cash to work.