Investing at a high level can be simple, but it's never easy. Most of the heavy lifting is done up front, and after that it becomes a matter of following your plan through good markets and bad. That requires mental and emotional toughness, resolve, and discipline.
In this module I will describe the cognitive and emotional pitfalls that you will encounter on your journey. And I will offer strategies to deal with them. Whether you can stay calm and rational when the market is hostile and your account is taking on water is up to you.
I'll give you the tools, but I can't use them for you.
"If you don't know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out." -Adam Smith, The Money Game
Almost all Master-level investors have developed acute self-awareness over time. It's a skill that few are born with but anyone with an average I.Q. can learn with a moderate amount of effort.
Self-awareness means having the courage to acknowledge your weaknesses and work on overcoming them, or at least taking them into consideration when making important investment decisions.
An investor who lacks self-awareness doesn't learn from his mistakes because he is unwilling to admit to himself that he has made one. He therefore repeats the same mistakes again and again, which leads to what Adam Smith called a very expensive education.
Combat troops learn to "keep your head on a swivel" because if they don't, they wont survive very long.Â
Quarterbacks learn to scan the defense quickly and look for weaknesses to exploit. Those who don't have this skill are quickly replaced.
If you want to achieve master level as an investor you need to develop situational awareness. You have to pay attention to what's happening in the market and the economy. Otherwise you'll just be the sucker at the table.
In the movie "A beautiful Mind" John Nash (played by Russell Crowe) was a math genius who figured out the keys to game theory.Â
In a nutshell, game theory says that it doesn't matter what the reality is when people are competing for a prize. It only matters what you think your opponents believe the reality is. If you can figure this out, you can anticipate your opponent's next move and outsmart them.
In the realm of investing, a solid grasp of game theory will take you far. It will enable you to play 3 dimensional chess while other investors are playing checkers.
There's this thing in investing called Modern Portfolio Theory. And there's this other thing called The Efficient Market Frontier. You can relax, because we're not going to go there. These topics are too wonky and you don't need to know the details.
Instead, this course will take the most critical parts of these theories and present them to you in a way that's practical and useful, without having to spend hours talking about theoretical stuff.
This short quiz will tell you how much of the module content you have retained. The purpose is to let you know if you should review the material or move on to the next module.
Leave a comment
Comment as a guest: