September 16, 2018

What happened last week.

What we're watching for next week.

The Macro Picture Has Improved Slightly

Some of the irritants that have been plaguing the market lately, such as the escalating trade tensions with our global partners, the ballooning budget deficits, and the drama surrounding an increasingly agitated president have eased ever so slightly over the last few weeks.

These issues have not gone away, but they don't seem to have the same urgency they once had. We are still on high alert for signs that a new recession and/or bear market may be coming, but today we are taking a breather as we see how things will play out on the world stage.

Chart 1. S&P periodic returns.

This Week

Last Week

sp500 returns

The numbers have improved since last week, but we are in a time when things change on a dime. Don't get lulled into a false sense of security.

Chart 2. Distance from Key Markers

This Week

Last Week

sp500 markers

We are still comfortably above the key markers that the technicians watch. It's steady as she goes for now.

Chart 3 - chart of the week

bear market history

It's always good to take time to reflect on history. The above table shows all of the major bull and bear markets since the Great Crash of 1929. It also shows the macro economic environment that was present at the time of each event. Bear markets are ugly, and I believe that you owe it to yourself to have a solid Plan B in place before the next one arrives.

Chart 4. The Market Dashboard

stock market dashboard 5

Final Thoughts

This week I'm watching what's going on in Italy. This is a big country, and if they start to show signs of defaulting on their debt, there is no telling where it might lead. Europe is now in the grip of far right wing factions, and they could quite easily make a serious policy mistake when it comes to handling the Italy situation.

As always, if you like what you see, or have suggestions for improving this recap, leave a comment below, or email me at info@zeninvestor.org

About the author 

Erik Conley

Former head of equity trading, Northern Trust Bank, Chicago. Teacher, trainer, mentor, market historian, and perpetual student of all things related to the stock market and excellence in investing.

  1. Do not understand chart 3. What is the bear market peak? How can a bear market peak before a bull market begins: From chart 3
    Bear market peak Bull Market Begins
    Sept 1929 July 1926
    March 1937 March 1935

  2. It was a poor choice of wording on my part. The bear market peak is actually the prior bull market peak. I should have labelled it “Bear Market Begins.” Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

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